Acting Before The Shock: El Niño 2026 Preparedness for Water, Food, and Climate Security

On August 19, during UNCCD COP17 in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, I attended a side event organized by the International Water Management Institute (IWMI) focused on El Niño preparedness, drought resilience, and the connections between water, land, climate, and food security.
The session, moderated by Marie-Charlotte Buisson IWMI Research Group Leader on Economics and Impact Assessment (EcIA) and featuring Giriraj Amarnath, IWMI Research Group Leader on Water Data for Climate Resilience and Principal Researcher for Disaster Risk Management and Climate Resilience, brought together perspectives from international organizations and countries including Ethiopia, Somalia, the United Arab Emirates, Sri Lanka, and India.
The central question was very practical: how do we turn knowledge about drought, El Niño, and land degradation into action before the impacts become severe?
The discussions emphasized the importance of moving from early warning to anticipatory action. Rather than waiting for drought to develop into an emergency, climate information should help governments, development organizations, and communities prepare while there is still time to reduce losses.

During the session the IWMI also presented its ENSO Outlook, a tool designed to translate El Niño and La Niña information into practical, country-level insights that can support anticipatory action. By bringing together climate forecasts, drought-related indicators, and possible preparedness measures, the tool helps connect climate information with earlier and better-informed decision-making.
Country experiences shared during the session also showed that climate impacts cannot be understood through a single global model. El Niño may influence rainfall and temperatures across large regions, but vulnerability remains highly local. Water availability, farming systems, infrastructure, institutions, household income, and access to information all shape whether a community can withstand a difficult season.
For the High Atlas Foundation, these are very practical considerations. Working with farming communities across Morocco means responding to increasingly variable rainfall, water scarcity, degraded soils, and more frequent climate stress.
For farmers and rural communities, a forecast only becomes valuable when it informs a decision. Should planting be delayed? Should water be conserved earlier in the season? Should a different crop or tree species be prioritized? Are additional irrigation measures needed? Should livestock feed or other resources be secured before conditions worsen?
These questions are particularly relevant for tree planting and agroforestry. The first years of tree establishment are highly sensitive to rainfall and water availability, and hotter or drier conditions can significantly increase mortality if planting dates, irrigation, species selection, and soil management are not adapted.
Another important message from the IWMI discussions was the need to address water, land, agriculture, energy, and ecosystems together rather than through isolated interventions. These systems are deeply interconnected, particularly in rural areas, where pressure on one resource can quickly affect livelihoods, agricultural production, and the resilience of the wider landscape.
The discussion also brought questions of finance, incentives, and equity firmly into the conversation. Much of the financing associated with drought still arrives after damage has occurred. One of the opportunities discussed at COP17 is to shift more resources toward preparedness, financing resilience before drought turns into crisis.
The way incentives are designed also matters. Policies that appear environmentally efficient at the national level can place disproportionate burdens on farmers with limited financial alternatives. Smallholder farmers and rural communities are often expected to implement many of the measures required for national climate resilience: maintaining trees, restoring soils, conserving water, protecting biodiversity, and adapting agricultural production. Yet they are frequently among those with the least access to finance.
For Morocco, and for the work of the High Atlas Foundation, this reinforces the importance of linking climate information with land restoration, sustainable agriculture, water management, and community development. It also connects directly with our approach, community-led restoration requires much more than distributing trees. It requires nurseries, technical assistance, water management, training, monitoring, and continued support during the years when trees are becoming established.
This is also where emerging climate and carbon finance can play a role. If designed carefully, these mechanisms can help channel resources toward long-term land restoration and agroforestry. But their success should also be measured by whether benefits reach the farmers and communities responsible for maintaining restored landscapes.
My main takeaway from the IWMI event was that climate resilience is ultimately about turning knowledge into timely decisions. We increasingly have the tools to identify emerging drought risks. The next challenge is ensuring that this information reaches farmers, communities, local organizations, and decision-makers in a form they can use, while also ensuring that they have the resources and incentives to act, financing mechanisms therefore need to recognize both the environmental value created by communities and the costs and risks they carry in producing that value.